Preparing for Post-Quantum Computing: What you can be doing to prepare

[Kathy K]

Background

What is quantum computing?

Quantum computing uses quantum mechanics principles like superposition and entanglement to answer problems classical computers cannot solve efficiently. Unlike using traditional bits of 0 or 1 with classical computers, quantum computers use qubits, which can represent multiple states simultaneously, allowing for massive parallel processing and faster computations.

How could quantum computers break today’s cryptographic algorithms?

We need to divide this question into two parts, as the answer differs depending on the type of cryptographic algorithm.

For symmetric key algorithms (like AES, the Advanced Encryption Standard) there seems to be limited risk. The NIST Computer Security Resource Center’s “Post-Quantum Cryptography FAQ” notes NIST has provided guidance that algorithms with less than 112-bits of classical security should not be used. Using key sizes like AES 256-bit, a key size widely used today, meets this guidance.

Asymmetric key algorithms (like RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography, ECC) rely on difficult computational problems.  Powerful quantum computers can solve these types of problems quickly.   

What is Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)?

Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) refers to cryptographic methods designed to resist attacks from both conventional and quantum computers.  The aim of PQC is to develop encryption algorithms that remain compatible with existing computer systems while providing security in a world with quantum computers. 

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) started the Post-Quantum Cryptography project in 2016 and requested cryptography experts submit algorithms for this competition.  NIST released 69 candidate algorithms for experts to analyze, and multiple rounds of competition reduced the candidate set.

Of the four algorithms NIST selected to be standardized, three are based on a family of math problems called structured lattices, while the fourth uses mathematical relationships known as hash functions.  Experts believe that neither conventional nor quantum computers can efficiently solve these problems.  Additional algorithms still under consideration are designed for general encryption and do not use structured lattices or hash functions.

And NIST is not the only organization focused on developing PQC algorithms. Reuters reported China announced a call to develop national standards for ‌post-quantum cryptography. Unlike most international researchers, Chinese post-quantum cryptographers have focused on ​developing structureless lattice algorithms like ​S-Cloud+. 

Though significant progress has been made in this area, PQC algorithm development work will  continue. 

Preparing for a New Era of Computing

What are current estimates for when the post-quantum computing era will begin?

Though we cannot give a specific answer to this question, we can look to NIST for estimates of when a cryptanalytically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) could exist [https://pages.nist.gov/nccoe-migration-post-quantum-cryptography/FAQ/index.html], which notes a wide range of estimates:

Near-term: Some believe CRQCs may emerge by 2030, driven by rapid advancements.

Mid-term: Many anticipate they could become feasible within 15 to 20 years, requiring significant progress in scaling and error correction.

Long-term: Others believe it may take 30+ years due to the challenges of achieving fault-tolerant quantum systems.

How can I prepare for the post-quantum computing era?

Post-quantum computing is an important topic to address.  If you would like to start taking action in the near future, following are suggested activities:

• Inventory your systems for applications that use encryption. 
• For symmetric algorithms, ensure you use AES 256-bit or stronger algorithms. 
• For asymmetric algorithms, confirm if you truly need to use the asymmetric algorithms or if there is another way to solve the security issue using symmetric algorithms.  For example, a symmetric algorithm Data Encryption Key (DEK) can be wrapped (that is, encrypted) with a symmetric Key Encryption Key (KEK) to provide security protection when transferring the DEK.
• If you are interested in External Key Management, we have launched quantum-resistant architecture for the External Key Management System enhancement included in the Australia Family Release.  This offering is designed to avoid use of asymmetric algorithms, something you’ll see in future products as well. 

At this time, we do not advocate a wholesale migration to PQC because the algorithm options continue to evolve.

Resources

If you are interested in digging deeper on this topic, following are suggested resources:

IBM, “What is quantum computing?” here

NIST FAQ on Post-Quantum Cryptography, https://pages.nist.gov/nccoe-migration-post-quantum-cryptography/FAQ/index.html

NIST “What is PQC”, https://www.nist.gov/cybersecurity-and-privacy/what-post-quantum-cryptography

NIST Computer Security Resource Center, Post-Quantum Cryptography FAQ, https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quantum-cryptography/faqs#:~:text=In%20the%20real%20world%2C%20w...

U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Quantum-Readiness: Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography

Cloud Security Alliance, Quantum Readiness Importance: A Comprehensive Guide

Reuters, March 19, 2026, “China likely to have standards for post-quantum cryptography in 3 years, expert says”, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-likely-have-standards-post-quantum-crytography-3-ye...

Cryptology ePrint Archive, SCloud, 2020, https://eprint.iacr.org/2020/095.pdf

China’s Institute of Commercial Cryptography Standards (ICCS) algorithm competition announcement, Feb. 5 2025, https://www.niccs.org.cn/niccs/Notice/pc/content/content_1937428197396713472.html