TACTIS-2: Better, Faster, Simpler Attentional Copulas for Multivariate Time Series

Résumé

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series.